The lessons of history are endlessly valuable to investors. On the back of the new BBC drama ‘King & Conqueror’, financial planner Charlie Garner looks at the climactic events of 1066 and what it can teach investors about the importance of timing.

During a recent conversation with Richard, he was surprised to learn that I had a keen interest in history, particularly British military history. 

He posed me a question: “Is there anything you’ve learned during your studies that would be of relevance to what we do today?” This got me thinking. 

What did the Normans ever do for us?

It’s one of the most familiar stories in the history of England, one we’re taught at school. It has spawned enormous amounts of culture and stories – everything from ‘1066 and all that’ to the latest BBC iteration just released – ‘King & Conqueror’ starring Game of Thrones bad boy Nikolaj Coster-Waldau as William the Conqueror. 

The last Anglo-Saxon king, Harold Godwinson, came to the throne in early 1066 after his predecessor, Edward the Confessor, died before the matter of his succession was settled. But he faced a number of threats.

William, having finally secured his hold of the Duchy of Normandy from his late father, had long aspired to the throne of England too – and claiming to have been named successor by Edward in 1051, felt it was his by right. 

The Danes too had long been a thorn in the side of Anglo-Saxon kings, raiding, pillaging and looting across Britain. In 1066, Harald Hardrada, King of Norway and proven warrior, saw in England a great prize. 

First blood

Hardrada was the first to strike, smashing the forces of the Earls Morcar of Northumbria and Edwin of Mercia at the Battle of Fulford, near York.

Subsequently, the invading Danes, expecting little resistance, arrived in Stamford to stake their claim for the throne with only light armour and weaponry and missing a third of their force. 

They instead met 15,000 battle-ready Anglo-Saxons, who decisively defeated the invaders at the Battle of Stamford Bridge, taking Hardrada’s life and making York the last English settlement to ever fall to Danish conquest. 

Not that easy…

Of course, the threat of William still loomed – and when he landed just three weeks later at Hastings, he met a weakened Godwinson force that had had little time to prepare, rest and replenish. 

As many of us learnt at school (if not - spoiler alert for those watching the show!), the ensuing Battle of Hastings marked the end of Anglo-Saxon rule in Britain. William claimed the crown and ushered in a new age for a freshly united kingdom. 

History meets investing

While this might seem a world away from today’s financial markets, the lessons we can learn about timing are striking. 

There is often a belief among the public that timing the market is what the ‘clever people’ do. 

Visions of London stockbrokers watching charts, waiting for the share price to dip just below the right level before going all in and making a big profit. How could we ever compete with such genius? 

This simply isn’t the case. Time in the market beats timing the market. The numbers prove it.

In a 2023 study, J.P. Morgan Asset Management found that in the 20 years between 2003 - 2022, the S&P 500 had an average annual return of 9.8% and:

• Missing just the 10 best days during that time would have reduced the return to 5.6%.
• Missing the 20 best days dropped it to 2.9%.
• Missing the 30 best days? You'd have lost money: -0.4% annualised return.

Key point: Many of the best days occur during periods of market volatility – often very close to the worst days, making them impossible to predict. Can you imagine missing these crucial days of returns for the hopes of a ‘better’ return?

By just having your money invested, you will experience the worst the market has to offer, of course. But naturally you’ll also experience the best it has to offer. 

What 1066 teaches us

The story of 1066 is full of moments of ‘genius’ timing. Hardrada facing English earls lacking the force and ability to withstand him, Godwinson surprising an unprepared Danish army, William facing a weakened and battle-weary Godwinson. 

In reality, the outcome of the various moving parts of these decisive few weeks was down to decisions made well in advance that were already in motion. William, by merely arriving on England’s shores with a force at his back, won the day.

No part of him, when he began building a fleet a year before, anticipated a Danish King would whittle down and tire the Anglo-Saxon ranks just in time for his invasion. He had already decided his destiny without knowledge of these fortuitous events in mind. Sometimes, then, the best way to start is to simply do that – start. 

There is no point overthinking when investing. By trying to find the perfect time to invest, you’re more likely to see the returns simply sail past you, rather than drop anchor on the absolute perfect opportunity. 

In investing as in history, success belongs to those who act, not those who wait for perfect conditions.